A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
